About "Conditional Probability Word Problem Examples"

Conditional Probability Word Problem Examples :

Here we are going to see some example problems on conditional probability.

Question 1 :

A year is selected at random. What is the probability that (i) it contains 53 Sundays (ii) it is a leap year which contains 53 Sundays

Solution :

In a ordinary year, we have 365 days

= 52 weeks + 1 day

= 52 Sundays + 1 day

That one day could be = {Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday}

Probability of getting 53 Sundays in ordinary year = 1/7

In a leap year, we have 366 days

= 52 weeks + 2 days

= 52 Sundays + 2 days

That one day could be = {(Sun, mon) (mon,Tue) (Tue, wed)(wed, thu) (thu, fri) (fri, sat) (sat, sun)}

Probability of getting 53 Sundays in leap year = 2/7

(i) it contains 53 Sundays

Hint in the given question : A year is selected at random

From this, we come to know that we may choose either ordinary year or leap year.

P(getting 53 Sundays)

= P(selecting ordinary year) ⋅ P(53 Sundays in ordinary year)

= (3/4) ⋅ (1/7)

[(A year occurring once in 4 years is know as leap year)

So, probability of being ordinary year = 3/4]

= 3/28 -------(1)

= P(selecting leap year) ⋅ P(53 Sundays in leap year)

= (1/4) ⋅ (2/7)

= 2/28 -------(2)

(1) + (2)

= (3/28) + (2/28)

= 5/28

(ii) it is a leap year which contains 53 Sundays

= P(selecting leap year) ⋅ P(53 Sundays in leap year)

= (1/4) ⋅ (2/7)

= 1/14

Question 2 :

Suppose the chances of hitting a target by a person X is 3 times in 4 shots, by Y is 4 times in 5 shots, and by Z is 2 times in 3 shots. They fire simultaneously exactly one time. What is the probability that the target is damaged by exactly 2 hits?

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